Projects

This project consists of two major studies focusing on agricultural sustainability in Iowa: 1) **State-level Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment**: This research integrates geospatial techniques with fuzzy logic to assess drought susceptibility in Iowa's agricultural regions from 2015 to 2021. By mapping drought risks and vulnerabilities, the study highlights an alarming trend of increasing drought susceptibility, particularly in Mid-Iowa and the western regions of the state. The fuzzy logic-based index is a key innovation, integrating social, physical, and meteorological parameters. Validation of the drought maps yielded a Kappa coefficient of 75%, affirming the accuracy of the findings. 2) **Phenology-Dependent Drought Indicators for Crop Yield Prediction**: This study uses causal inference and information theory to identify the most effective drought indices for predicting corn and soybean yields. The analysis shows that SPEI-9m and SPI-6m during critical crop stages (silking and doughing periods) have the strongest causal relationships with corn production. This emphasizes the importance of considering phenological periods when estimating crop productivity. Notably, the study found no nonlinearity in the soybean yield data, preventing causal analysis for this crop. The combined insights of these studies offer valuable guidance for sustainable agricultural management, especially in the context of increasing drought threats in Iowa's farming regions.

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